Uganda return to the Africa Cup of Nations spotlight on Tuesday evening knowing history offers encouragement, even if the task ahead remains daunting.
The Cranes face three-time champions Nigeria at the Complexe Sportif de Fès, with kick-off set for 5:00pm local time (7:00pm in Uganda), in a match that could define their 2025 AFCON campaign.
While Nigeria have already secured qualification as Group leaders, Uganda must win to keep their tournament alive.
Yet, the head-to-head record suggests the Super Eagles are far from an insurmountable obstacle.
Head-to-Head Favors Uganda
Despite Nigeria’s continental pedigree, Uganda have quietly enjoyed the upper hand in meetings between the two nations.
Across eight encounters in all competitions, including friendlies, the Cranes boast four victories to Nigeria’s two, with two draws separating them.
Remarkably, Nigeria have not beaten Uganda since a controversial 1–0 AFCON qualifier win on 24 March 2007 in Abeokuta.
Nwankwo Kanu scored the decisive goal in the 73rd minute, but that match remains a sore memory for Ugandans after Geoffrey Sserunkuma was denied a legitimate equaliser.
Uganda are currently unbeaten in their last three matches against Nigeria (W2 D1), with the most recent clash ending goalless in a friendly played in Asaba on 20 November 2018.
This will be only the second time Uganda and Nigeria meet at the Africa Cup of Nations finals.
The first came in 1978, a tournament etched deeply into Ugandan football folklore. In the semi-finals, the Cranes stunned Nigeria 2–1 thanks to goals from Abdallah Nasur and Phillip Omondi, with Martins Eyo scoring Nigeria’s consolation.
Uganda went on to reach the final, eventually losing 2–0 to Ghana in Kumasi, still their best-ever AFCON finish.
The Cranes, however, arrive with worrying recent tournament statistics.
Uganda are winless in their last five AFCON matches (D2 L3), with their last victory and clean sheet coming against DR Congo in the opening game of the 2019 tournament.
Even more concerning, Uganda have not won a final group-stage match at AFCON since that famous 1978 campaign, when they defeated Morocco 3–0.
Since then, final group games have ended in disappointment, defeats in 1968, 1974, 1976 and 2019, with a lone bright spot being a 1–1 draw against Mali in 2017.
Failure to overcome Nigeria would see Uganda exit the Africa Cup of Nations without a single win for the sixth time, having previously gone winless in 1962, 1968, 1974, 1976 and 2017.
Progression, on the other hand, would mark just their third journey beyond the group stage, after 1978 and 2019.
Nigeria’s AFCON record tells a different story. The Super Eagles are set to make their 16th consecutive appearance in the knockout rounds, a streak stretching back to 1982. Overall, they have reached the last 16 or beyond on 19 occasions.
Their recent victory over Tunisia marked Nigeria’s 35th group-stage win at AFCON, achieved in just 59 group matches, a tally bettered only by Egypt.
The West Africans are now chasing a rare milestone of winning all three group games at an AFCON for the first time since 2021.
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